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TOPIC EIGHT

Essentials of Risk Management

The difference between profit and loss can come down to how well foreign currency exposure is managed. Market trading can be a hard experience without a risk management plan in place.

​Risk management is pivotal when it comes to being successful at trading. Every trader will lose a trade more than once. It's the cost of doing business and taking risks to reap the reward. Being able to manage this risk is where many fail. Eagerness to start right away and see profits is a common downfall, associating the word trading with gambling. 

It is easy to understand why without the right education and risk management it is considered as gambling as there is no control on your losses.


Prevention of chasing losing trades as well as minimising potential losses are the fundamentals of risk management. Taking a stab in the dark and hoping for a win is no different to trying your luck at the casino. 

 


Rules and outside noise

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Rules help determine when entering, exiting, placing stop losses and adjusting trades. Trading for many is a business with structure and processes. 

 

Forex volatility can move quickly, eating away at equity in the trading account and potentially activating margin calls for more funds to be deposited. This is a good way to lose sleep. Sometimes sitting on the sideline is a good position to take. Not all battles are won with an open position.


That ‘missing out’ feeling often comes from others. Herd mentality or overhearing people excited about a certain opportunity can play tricks. People are tempted to contradict their rules and catch the tail end of already finished movements. 


No person wants to throw away hard earned money or savings to the market. Appropriate risk management steps help eliminate common errors that many wipe their accounts with.


Drawdown and appropriate risks


'Drawdowns' put value to being negative/losing a trade. While everyone experiences them, they can be catastrophic if not appropriately managed. If a trader starts with a $10,000 account and is down by $4,000, the drawdown is 40%. The reduction of capital is often calculated as a percentage.


Losing streaks are something that can happen to anyone. As long as the losses are managed then the overall capital can bounce back. The key to this is to remain disciplined and not try and chase the losses. This is where appropriate risk comes into play. Positions can move from being -$2,000 to -$19,000 in as little as a day or two.


Experienced traders often risk only a small percentage of their overall capital in order to make it through the losing trades. Let's use the example of 2%, allowing enough to aim for returns without risking too much. Some traders are more aggressive and use 5% risk of their capital while others may feel more conservative with only 1% or 0.5%.

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Losing trades

 

 

The table above shows how a 3% variation in risk can affect losses in the unlikely case of 15 losing trades in a row. A starting capital of $50,000 and 2% risk would lose $1,000, while 5% risk would lose $2,500. Continuing to take 2% and 5% losses on the remaining capital after 15 straight losses show a difference of more than $13,000 between the two (5% risk losing >50% after 15 losing trades). 

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Predetermined risk levels can be applied with the use of stop-losses.

 


Risk-to-reward ratio

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Strangely enough the psychology of people sees them take smaller profits (in case the market turns), and larger losses (waiting for the market to turn). We forget to pay ourselves more and quick to lock in a profit when a trade could have carried on (without being greedy). 


People often worry about calculating the risk willing to lose and forget to assess a target profit level. Proper analysis can sometimes reveal that a market has the potential to go five or ten times higher than the risk. Why risk $500 when your target profit is only $100 and accept a 5:1 against risk-to-reward ratio?


Seeking strategies returning three times more profit than risk gives traders the ability to make three mistakes before they are at square one. Whereas a plan to risk three times more than the target will only result in needing three wins just to cover one loss. Doesn’t make sense does it?

 


Respect the leverage

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Over-leveraging positions relative to the account size in order to catch higher profits is the most common way to accidentally wipe out the whole account.


Choosing how many lots to enter into determines how quickly the profits or losses come in as the market moves. The same profit/loss can be seen with a 100 pip movement on 'one lot' or a 50 pip movement with 'two lots' open. 

 

Platforms allow users to open contracts controlling $100,000 or more with only $500 margin (200:1 leverage). It is easy to understand how quickly capital could be wiped trading a standard contract with 200 times less capital required. Having under-capitalised accounts compared to their trade sizes doesn't allow for the position to breath and move around before it goes the right way. Just because platforms allow you to open certain size accounts with little capital does not mean it is smart to do so. You don’t always need to utilise the maximum amount of leverage brokers give just because it’s there.


Traders need to respect the leverage available to them. The more capital available, the higher the trade sizes can be and as a result the bigger the profits. Trading is not for those who have no other way of making ends meet, this stress can be too much. Not having enough capital is the reason a very large portion of new to market traders fail. 


Account size: $5,000

Margin used for open positions: $3,000

Profit / Loss: -$1,600 (losing open positions)

Available Equity Left: $400 ($5,000 - $3,000 - $1,600)


When there is only a certain percentage left in available equity, a margin call may be required in order to keep the trades active. If the trader decided not to put any more money in, the platform may close all the trades to free up equity, leaving $3,400 ($5,000 - $1,600) left as the balance. 

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  • Understand the leverage and position sizes

  • Predetermined stop-losses and take-profit levels

  • Apply adequate trade sizes to the capital in the account

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